Compute Your Predicted Minimum Times No Matter How Old You Are:
AGING TABLES FOR RUNNING AND SWIMMING
At some point -- whether that's at 33, 38, 44, or sometime before or after that-- we slow down in running and other sports. For a long time runners older than the age of peak performance (25 is one of those ages) have used the World Masters Athletics age grading calculator (http://www.howardgrubb.co.uk/athletics/wmalookup15.html) to estimate what their times in distances from sprints to ultra distances might have been if they were 25 again.
Another aging performance table published by Ray C. Fair of Yale University provides predicted times both for swimming and running. You can, given your best previous times at a certain age, predicted the times which you might have scored at 25, for example.
Dr. Fair's article on which the tables are based is "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," from Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57. As his abstract states, his estimates show a linear percent decline between age 35 and about age 70 and then quadratic decline after that. In addition, the abstract states that rates of decline are generally larger for the longer distances, and for swimming they are larger for women than for men. Using best-performance records to estimate rates of decline, the records are generally based on very large samples. The age range in his study is 35 to 100 for swimming and 35 to 98 for track and field and running.
Find your event and highlight the link below to use Fair's formula. The World Masters Athletics age grading calculator is the standard calculator for all running events and you can compare those with Fair's. Fair also computes age grading for swimmers.
100, 200, or 400 meter track: https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/short.htm
800 meters through the marathon:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/runoth.htm
Swimming, 50 meters or yards, men:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimm50.htmfairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimm50.htm
Swimming, 100 meters or yards, men:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimm100.htm
Swimming, over 100 meters or yards, men:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimm200.htm
Swimming, 50 meters or yards, women:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimw50.htm
Swimming, 100 meters or yards, women:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimw100.htm
Swimming, over 100 meters or yards, women:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimw200.htm
AGING TABLES FOR RUNNING AND SWIMMING
At some point -- whether that's at 33, 38, 44, or sometime before or after that-- we slow down in running and other sports. For a long time runners older than the age of peak performance (25 is one of those ages) have used the World Masters Athletics age grading calculator (http://www.howardgrubb.co.uk/athletics/wmalookup15.html) to estimate what their times in distances from sprints to ultra distances might have been if they were 25 again.
Another aging performance table published by Ray C. Fair of Yale University provides predicted times both for swimming and running. You can, given your best previous times at a certain age, predicted the times which you might have scored at 25, for example.
Dr. Fair's article on which the tables are based is "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," from Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57. As his abstract states, his estimates show a linear percent decline between age 35 and about age 70 and then quadratic decline after that. In addition, the abstract states that rates of decline are generally larger for the longer distances, and for swimming they are larger for women than for men. Using best-performance records to estimate rates of decline, the records are generally based on very large samples. The age range in his study is 35 to 100 for swimming and 35 to 98 for track and field and running.
Find your event and highlight the link below to use Fair's formula. The World Masters Athletics age grading calculator is the standard calculator for all running events and you can compare those with Fair's. Fair also computes age grading for swimmers.
100, 200, or 400 meter track: https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/short.htm
800 meters through the marathon:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/runoth.htm
Swimming, 50 meters or yards, men:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimm50.htmfairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimm50.htm
Swimming, 100 meters or yards, men:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimm100.htm
Swimming, over 100 meters or yards, men:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimm200.htm
Swimming, 50 meters or yards, women:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimw50.htm
Swimming, 100 meters or yards, women:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimw100.htm
Swimming, over 100 meters or yards, women:
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/swimw200.htm